The Financial Year Ends… and the Real Game Begins

EOFY is here. Half the year has flown by, and what a ride it’s been.

We’re finally seeing funding momentum pick back up. Sales across scale-ups are growing steadily. Inflation is easing (slowly), but human recruitment remains flat—while business adoption of AI is going exponential. General market conditions, however, remain slow.

Everyone seems to be raising. But here’s the twist: early-stage company formation is rising again, a sign that belief is returning to the market.

In the past six months, global instability has reached new highs—geopolitics, elections, capital flows—and yet investing continues to climb. At Innovation Bay, we just sold out our flagship venture event (VDU) with a waitlist. That says something: confidence is returning. But it also means community has never been more essential not just as a support network, but as a filter for truth in an era of narrative overload and societal noise. The right community that is.

That said, when looking at global market conditions:

• USA 2025 full-year forecast: ~1.8% growth (revised down from 2.7%) theguardian.com Takeaway: A slow start in 2025, but overall growth is still positive.
  
• Canada, 2025 forecast: ~2.3% fred.stlouisfed.org+15en.wikipedia.org+15wsj.com+15 Takeaway: Improving momentum—strongest growth outlook within the G7.
  
• United Kingdom: 2025 forecast: ~1.1–1.5% data.imf.org+15theguardian.com+15economicsinsider.com+15 Takeaway: Early strength, though risks remain in Q2.
  
• France : 2024 to 2025 forecast: steady at ~0.6–1.1% (2024: 1.1%, 2025: 1.1%) Takeaway: Modest but consistent growth.
  
• Germany: Q1‑2025: sluggish, with forecasts around 0–0.8% growth Takeaway: Weakest among G7; minimal recovery underway.
  
• Japan :  Long-term forecast (IMF/World Bank): around 1.0% annualized  Takeaway: Modest pick-up after years of stagnation.

And closer to home looking at Australia and NZ:

• Australia : RBA forecasts growth of 2.4% for 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, but the OECD and bank economists warn it could be nearer 1.8–2.0%, indicating a subdued rebound marketspy.com.

• NZ : Forecast: Slight rise beginning 2025, with consensus pointing to ~+2.1% growth heading into 2026 .

What I’ve Learned So Far This Year

1. The world is rarely as f*cked as the media says. Under the surface, business confidence is growing — just follow the sales numbers and Series A announcements.
   
2. AI is about to become all we talk about. Adoption isn’t just happening — it’s defining winners and losers.
   
3. Physical community has never been more important. Real people. Real conversation. Real context. That’s where clarity lives.

What’s Coming in the Next 6 Months

• A wave of AI-native business models will emerge — not just AI-enhanced, but AI-first companies with entirely new economics.
• AI will outperform humans in more operational domains — and hiring will reflect that. (e.g. 46% of HR roles are expected to be impacted by AI tools in the next 2 years – McKinsey, 2024)
• Recruitment as we know it is about to break 50% of traditional recruiter workflows could be automated by year-end.
• Startups that delay AI adoption will get outpaced — fast.
• Early-stage funding will accelerate — especially into vertical-specific AI, climate, and fintech models. VC investment in AI startups has already doubled YoY globally (Crunchbase, June 2025)

Founder Opportunity: SUMMIT EXPEDITION 2025
We’re now accepting applications for our annual Founder Retreat – an off-grid experience for ANZ’s top scaling founders. We have 30 spots available for founders based in Australia, generating $1M+ ARR. This is where real conversations happen, and lifelong connections are made.
👉 Apply to attend here.

Thanks,
Phaedon.

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